Arizona Seeing Signs of Flight by Immigrants
PHOENIX —(NYT) - The signs of flight among Latino immigrants here are multiple: Families moving out of apartment complexes, schools reporting enrollment drops, business owners complaining about fewer clients.While it is too early to know for certain, a consensus is developing among economists, business people and immigration groups that the weakening economy coupled with recent curbs on illegal immigration are steering Hispanic immigrants out of the state.
The Arizona economy, heavily dependent on growth and a Latino work force, has been slowing for months. Meanwhile, the state has enacted one of the country’s toughest laws to punish employers who hire illegal immigrants, and the county sheriff here in Phoenix has been enforcing federal immigration laws by rounding up people living here illegally.
“It is very difficult to separate the economic reality in Arizona from the effects of the laws because the economy is tanking and construction is drying up,” said Frank Pierson, lead organizer of the Arizona Interfaith Network, which advocates for immigrants’ rights and other causes. But the combination of factors creates “ a disincentive to stay in the state.”
State Representative Russell K. Pearce, a Republican from Mesa and leading advocate of the crackdown on illegal immigration, takes reports of unauthorized workers leaving as a sign of success. An estimated one in 10 workers in Arizona are Hispanic immigrants, both legal and illegal, twice the national average.
“The desired effect was, we don’t have the red carpet out for illegal aliens,” Mr. Pearce said, adding that while “most of these are good people” they are a “tremendous burden” on public services.
On Monday, state lawmakers, concerned about shortages of workers and the failed revamping of immigration law in Congress, which was pushed by Senator John McCain of Arizona, pledged action.
Bills were announced that would create a state-run temporary worker program, though it would need Congressional authorization. And last week Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, offered to help the United States Labor Department rewrite regulations designed to streamline visas for agricultural workers, who growers say are increasingly hard to find.
While data for the last month or so are not available, there were already signs of migration out of Arizona at the end of last year. In the fourth quarter of 2007 the apartment-vacancy rate in metropolitan Phoenix rose to 11.2 percent from 9 percent in the same quarter of 2006, with much higher rates of 15 percent or more in heavily Latino neighborhoods.
“You have many people moving out, but they are not all illegal,” said Terry Feinberg, president of the Arizona Multihousing Alliance, a trade group for the apartment and rental housing industry. “A lot of people moving are citizens, or legal, but because someone in their family or social network is not, and they are having a hard time keeping or finding a job, they all move.”
Elizabeth Leon, a legal immigrant and day care worker, said the families of two of her charges abruptly left, forcing the state to take custody of the children. Ms. Leon’s brother, a construction worker who is not authorized to be in the country, plans to leave, unable to find steady work; families at the neighborhood school have pulled children out, Ms. Leon said, fearful of sheriff’s deputies.
“It is like a panic here,” she said. “This is all having an effect on the community, mostly emotional.”
Juan Jose Araujo, 44, is here legally. His wife, however, is not and is pressing for the family to return to Mexico because of the difficulty in finding a job and what the family considers a growing anti-immigrant climate.
Although prosecutors in the state do not plan to begin enforcing the sanctions against employers until next month, several employers have reportedly already dismissed workers whose legal authorization to work could not be proved, as required by the law.
“We don’t have family or anything in Mexico,” said Mr. Araujo, who has lived in the United States for 24 years. “I wouldn’t have anywhere to go there, but we have to consider it.”
Property managers report that families have uprooted overnight, with little or no notice. Carlos Flores Vizcarra, the Mexican consul general in Phoenix, said while he could not tie the phenomenon to a single factor, the consulate had experienced an “unusual” five-fold increase in parents applying for Mexican birth certificates for their children and other documents that often are a prelude to moving.
Several school districts in heavily Latino areas have reported sudden drops in enrollment. Official explanations are elusive because school officials have not been able to interview families about why they left, but, anecdotally, people point to the sour economy and the immigration crackdown among other factors.
The Cartwright Elementary School District in west Phoenix, for instance, reported a loss of 525 students this school year (dropping the enrollment to 19,845), while in previous years enrollment had grown or remained stable among its 23 schools. Meri Simmons, a spokeswoman for the district, said word of mouth suggested that the economy and sanctions on employers played a role.
“We know we have a lot of empty houses,” Ms. Simmons said.
Jobs in the construction industry, a major employer of immigrants, are growing scarce, declining 8.6 percent in December compared with the previous year.
Juan Leon, a construction subcontractor and the husband of Elizabeth Leon, the day care worker, said illegal immigrants had made it harder for legal residents like him to find work. Companies that employ them can bid much lower on projects than he can because they pay workers much less, Mr. Leon said.
“I hate to see families torn apart,” he said of the current flight, “but there is no money to be made sometimes because some contractors who employ illegal workers can do the job dirt cheap.”
Dawn McLaren, an economist at Arizona State University in Tempe who studies the state’s economic and migration trends, said it was likely that lack of work is forcing people to move, probably to nearby states. But Ms. McLaren also theorized that the slowing economy had caused a reduction in the flow of new immigrants over the border.
Analyzing data back to the early 1990s, she said, a drop in Border Patrol arrests — they have been steadily declining the last couple of years — typically preceded an economic downturn or slowing.
“It’s a highly networked community,” she said of border crossers. “It costs a lot to get here, and they generally have a job lined up here. People say, ‘We need people on the crew.’ And they tell friends and relatives to come over.”
A persistent decline in the immigrant population could damage the overall Arizona economy, Ms. McLaren said. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center released in January said illegal workers made up close to 11 percent of the state’s work force of 2.9 million people in 2006, double the national estimate.
“What it looks like now is that a little bump in the economic road, especially with the sanctions law, is looking like it might last a year or more,” she said.
Even as the economy slows and people leave, the matter of the state’s sanctions on employers is not settled.
The legal fight over the law, which a federal judge upheld Thursday, is headed for the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. The law punishes employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants by suspending their business license for 10 days on the first offense and revoking it for a second infraction.
Opponents call it an unconstitutional intrusion by the state on federal immigration authority but the federal judge, Neil V. Wake, disagreed.
At the same time, signatures are being gathered for two ballot initiatives, one that would toughen the law and another meant to soften it. If both end up on the November ballot, the one with the most votes would prevail.
Ms. McLaren, the economist, said that in the end history showed it was difficult to stop illegal immigration so long as jobs paid better in the United States than at home. An economic rebound would probably draw people back here, no matter the laws.
“They will find a way to adjust,” she said.
Give me a break. The reason they’re heading south is that the economy is not that great. Why, because the media says we’re in a recession - but we all know that’s bullshit. Can anyone out there say, with a straight face, that they’d rather live in Mexico - assuming you’re a laborer - than live in the United States? And not all of these people who are leaving are here illegally. They can come to Mexifornia - hell, let ‘em go to Malibu, Beverly Hills, anywhere down in sunny southern California - there’s tons of liberals who’d like to help the Latinos out. Just like Hillary helped out her former campaign manager.
Mexican Prez Decries Anti-Immigrant Tone
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP) - Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Monday decried anti-immigrant perceptions in the United States and argued that Mexican immigrants complement American workers.
On his first trip to the U.S. as Mexico’s president, Calderon said he is working to combat anti-Americanism in Mexico and to improve job prospects there to reduce migration. He said he hopes that Americans resist anti-Mexican sentiments.
“The worst thing that happened in this country is this anti-Mexican or anti-immigrant perception of people. We need to contain this,” Calderon said after a speech at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.
“I need to change in Mexico the perception that the Americans are the enemy, and it is important to change the perception that the Mexicans are the enemy,” he said. “We are neighbors, we are friends and we must be allies.”
The combination of American wealth and Mexican labor is an irresistible economic force, Calderon said.
“You have two economies. One economy is intensive in capital, which is the American economy. One economy is intensive in labor, which is the Mexican economy,” he said. “We are two complementary economies, and that phenomenon is impossible to stop.”
Calderon’s trip has been billed as a high-stakes effort to shape the immigration debate during the U.S. presidential race, though Calderon is not meeting with any of the candidates or with President Bush during the trip. He said he will not endorse a candidate but will work with whomever is elected.
Immigration remains a key issue in nominating contests, particularly among Republicans, amid calls for toughened border security and a border fence.
“The American economy is suffering, but if you take the point of view that the solution for this situation, a lack of competitiveness of the American economy, is closing the border, you are making a very big mistake,” Calderon said.
During his speech, Calderon said that he had worked hard to combat drug gangs in Mexico but that the effort would be long, costly and difficult. He also pointed a finger at the U.S., saying the drug trade in Mexico is contingent on the demand for illegal drugs north of the border.
“Drugs are not just our problem. We are the neighbor of the largest consumer in the world,” he said.
Earlier Monday, Calderon and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon discussed climate change, counter-narcotics efforts and U.N. anti-poverty goals during a private meeting in New York. Calderon also will visit Chicago, Los Angeles and Sacramento, Calif.
So Felipe, we’re the cause that you have so many drug cartels in your country, which , in the opinion of most informed Gringos, is the one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Have you lost your mind, Senor? Answer this question, amigo, if we shipped back every illegal Mexicano (most of which are released from your prisons with the express intent that they head for Norte Americano), what exactly can you do for them? There are 12,000,000 + of your ‘beloved’ citizens living here in the ‘drug den of the world’ and shouldn’t it cause you concern that your fellow country men might fall in with these desperate criminals and become just like them? Why don’t you fix the problems in your country before you go lecturing to us - if you want to stop the drug trade in Mexico, then stop the drugs from coming into your country, you pin head. Further, as if you didn’t know, why don’t you come up here and arrest the illegals of your country who are selling drugs to the indigenous tribes, and as a ‘reward’ to the females of these tribes, your thugs make a habit of raping as many of the American Indian women and children as they can lay their hands on. Why don’t we call in the law, well, if you had gone to school, you’d know that Tribal land is governed by tribal people, and these lawmen are scattered so very thin that they can’t be everywhere at once. Oh, by the way, how you doing on the anti-American feelings your country has against us - clean up your back yard before you start lecturing to anyone.
List of worst nursing homes released
Last November, the government released a partial list of 54 nursing homes that ranked among the worst in their states, balking at releasing the full list of homes with the “special focus” designation. After a group of Democratic lawmakers began pushing for full disclosure, CMS said Tuesday it was publishing the names after cross-checking information to ensure the release of the most accurate data.
CMS will update its list of troubled nursing homes on a quarterly basis, with its next release scheduled for April.
“This is the latest in a series of steps we will be taking to improve quality and oversight in nursing homes,” said Kerry Weems, CMS acting administrator. “We are issuing more information on special focus facilities to better equip beneficiaries, their families, and caregivers to make informed decisions and stimulate robust improvements in nursing homes having not improved their quality of care.”
“This should just be one of the tools,” Weems added. “There is no substitute for visiting the nursing home in person.”
The list released Tuesday shows 52 nursing homes as not showing improvement after they were cited as a higher-risk nursing home, while another 52 did show some improvement. Twenty-seven nursing homes were added to the list in the last six months.
Out of the 54 nursing homes initially disclosed as poor performers last November, 21 have shown improvement, CMS said, adding that publicity about the problems might have played a factor.
There are about 16,400 nursing homes nationwide, and taxpayers spend about $72.5 billion annually to subsidize nursing home care.
While most nursing homes have some deficiencies, with the average being six to seven deficiencies per survey, the special focus facilities typically have about twice that number, and continue to have problems over a long period of time. However, the states determine which nursing homes should get the designation, and inspection standards vary among the states.
The offenses typically involve unnecessary use of medication for elderly residents, or inadequate safeguards to protect residents such as those with Alzheimer’s from day-to-day hazards in the nursing home.
Sen. Herb Kohl, D-Wis., who chairs the Senate Special Committee on Aging, applauded CMS’ move.
“We believe that Americans should have access to as much information about a nursing home as possible,” he said. “We also agree that giving consumers more information about our nation’s nursing homes is a good idea, but that doing so in a manner that causes a panic is not.”
Oh, this just pisses me off to no end. Beyond the fact that the patients are getting poor or no care, we - you and me, as taxpayers are paying $72,500,000,000 a year to subsidize nursing home care. Their are approximately 16,400 care facilities in the US - that breaks down to $4,420,731 per facility that’s coming out of our pockets and they can’t even give proper care. How do you feel now?
On the Net:
The nursing home list can be found at:
http://www.cms.hhs.gov/CertificationandComplianc/Downloads/SFFList.pdf
Senate Special Committee on Aging:
Cindy Sheehan in Egypt for Islamists
“I am here to protest the trial of civilians in front of a military tribunal as this is a violation to international law,” said Sheehan, who gained fame in the U.S. for her sit-in outside President Bush’s Texas ranch following the death of her son in Iraq.
“As a mother of a son who was killed in the war, I presented a letter to Ms. Suzanne Mubarak to realize how those women and children are suffering.”
The street protest was rare in Egypt where authorities ban most signs of public dissent.
One woman carried a sleeping infant in her arms along with a poster reading “Father, I miss you.”
In December 2006, the government engaged in a wide-ranging crackdown against the Brotherhood, the country’s largest opposition force — which holds one-fifth of the seats in the parliament — targeting in particular businessmen known to financially support the group.
In February 2007, President Hosni Mubarak ordered 40 of the organization’s members to be tried by a military tribunal on charges of money laundering and terrorism. The court’s verdict is expected Feb. 26.
According to the Brotherhood, 3,245 members of their organization were arrested in 2007.
Where does this bitch get off on meddling in other countries’ affairs. And who’s footing the bill. Yeah, her son died serving his country - many sons have been lost to war - her son’s probably rolling in his grave with shame. If he had been killed in a vehicular accident - whom would she be railing against now? My parents lost two of their sons in combat - I’m the only son left. My parents were obviously saddened and heart-broken by their loss, but they didn’t lose their fucking minds! Ms. Shithead Sheehan should be deported - hey, let’s just cancel her visa and let her stay in Egypt.
The Vanishing Point
NOW YOU SEE THEM Sascha Kooienga, left, and Artem Emelianov represent the current silhouette on the men’s wear.
The models in question were women, and it’s safe to say that they remain as waiflike as ever. But something occurred while no one was looking. Somebody shrunk the men.
“Skinny, skinny, skinny,” said Dave Fothergill, a director of the agency of the moment, Red Model Management. “Everybody’s shrinking themselves.”
This was abundantly clear in the castings of models for New York shows by Duckie Brown, Thom Browne, Patrik Ervell, Robert Geller and Marc by Marc Jacobs, where models like Stas Svetlichnyy of Russia typified the new norm. Mr. Svetlichnyy’s top weight, he said last week, is about 145 pounds. He is 6 feet tall with a 28-inch waist.
“Designers like the skinny guy,” he said backstage last Friday at the Duckie Brown show. “It looks good in the clothes and that’s the main thing. That’s just the way it is now.”
Even in Milan last month at shows like Dolce & Gabbana and Dsquared, where the castings traditionally ran to beefcake types, the models were leaner and less muscled, more light-bodied. Just as tellingly, Dolce & Gabbana’s look-book for spring 2008 (a catalog of the complete collection) featured not the male models the label has traditionally favored — industry stars like Chad White and Tyson Ballou, who have movie star looks and porn star physiques — but men who look as if they have never seen the inside of a gym.
“The look is different from when I started in the business eight years ago,” Mr. Ballou said last week during a photo shoot at the Milk Studios in lower Manhattan. In many of the model castings, which tend to be dominated by a handful of people, the body style that now dominates is the one Charles Atlas made a career out of trying to improve.
“The first thing I did when I moved to New York was immediately start going to the gym,” the designer John Bartlett said. That was in the long-ago 1980s. But the idea of bulking up now seems retro when musicians and taste arbiters like Devendra Banhart boast of having starved themselves in order to look good in clothes.
“The eye has changed,” Mr. Bartlett said. “Clothes now are tighter and tighter. Guys are younger and younger. Everyone is influenced by what Europe shows.”
What Europe (which is to say influential designers like Miuccia Prada and Raf Simons at Jil Sander) shows are men as tall as Tom Brady but who wear a size 38 suit.
“There are designers that lead the way,” said James Scully, a seasoned casting agent best known for the numerous modeling discoveries he made when he worked at Gucci under Tom Ford. “Everyone looks to Miuccia Prada for the standard the way they used to look at Hedi Slimane. Once the Hedi Slimanization got started, all anyone wanted to cast was the scrawny kid who looked like he got sand kicked in his face. The big, great looking models just stopped going to Europe. They knew they’d never get cast.”
For starters, they knew that they would never fit into designers’ samples. “When I started out in the magazine business in 1994, the sample size was an Italian 50,” said Long Nguyen of Flaunt magazine, referring to a size equivalent to a snug 40-regular.
“That was an appropriate size for a normal 6-foot male,” Mr. Nguyen said. Yet just six years later — coincidentally at about the time Mr. Slimane left his job as the men’s wear designer at YSL for Dior Homme — the typical sample size had dwindled to 48. Now it is 46.
“At that point you might as well save money and just go over to the boy’s department,” Mr. Nguyen said from his seat in the front row of the Benjamin Cho show, which was jammed as usual with a selection of reedy boys in Buffalo plaid jackets and stovepipe jeans, the same types that fill Brooklyn clubs like Sugarland. “I’m not really sure if designers are making clothes smaller or if people are smaller now,” Mr Nguyen said.
According to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Americans are taller and much heavier today than 40 years ago. The report, released in 2002, showed that the average height of adult American men has increased to 5-9 ½ in 2002 from just over 5-8 in 1960. The average weight of the same adult man had risen dramatically, to 191 pounds from 166.3.
Nowadays a model that weighed in at 191 pounds, no matter how handsome, would be turned away from most agencies or else sent to a fat farm.
Far from inspiring a spate of industry breast-beating, as occurred after the international news media got hold of the deaths of two young female models who died from eating disorders, the trend favoring very skinny male models has been accepted as a matter or course.
“I personally think that it’s the consumer that’s doing this, and fashion is just responding,” said Kelly Cutrone, the founder of People’s Revolution, a fashion branding and production company. “No one wants a beautiful women or a beautiful man anymore.”
In terms of image, the current preference is for beauty that is not fully evolved. “People are afraid to look over 21 or make any statement of what it means to be adult,” Ms. Cutrone said.
George Brown, a booking agent at Red Model Management, said: “When I get that random phone call from a boy who says, ‘I’m 6-foot-1 and I’m calling from Kansas,’ I immediately ask, ‘What do you weigh?’ If they say 188 or 190, I know we can’t use him. Our guys are 155 pounds at that height.”
Their waists, like that of Mr. Svetlichnyy, measure 28 or 30 inches. They have, ideally, long necks, pencil thighs, narrow shoulders and chests no more than 35.5 inches in circumference, Mr. Brown said. “It’s client driven,” he added. “That’s just the size that blue-chip designers and high-end editorials want.”
For Patrik Ervell’s show on Saturday, the casting brief called for new faces and men whose bodies were suited to a scarecrow silhouette. “We had to measure their thighs,” Mr. Brown said.
For models like Demián Tkach, a 26-year-old Argentine who was recently discovered by the photographer Bruce Weber, the tightening tape measure may cut off a career.
Mr. Tkach said that when he came here from Mexico, where he had been working: “My agency asked me to lose some muscle. I lost a little bit to help them, because I understand the designers are not looking for a male image anymore. They’re looking for some kind of androgyne.”
What’s good for the gander is not so good for the goose?
